Ideas are always born in strange places. Someone will say something that pops an idea in your head… and it makes you realize something that makes you want to write. Yesterday, that idea came from the comments section of our Total Overhaul post. Suddenly, we realized that Danny is building us a potential champion… by accident. We are now The Accidental Contender:
Danny Ainge is stumbling through what might be an historic offseason for the Boston Celtics. Every move he wanted to make this offseason has fallen through… leading him to look in another direction. The funny thing is, that other direction, has built us a contender (continue reading)
Hey… I’ll take it however I can get it. But I just want to make it absolutely clear that this is not turning out how Danny Ainge had intended. It’s almost as if Chauncey Gardner suddenly started running the Celtics.
It’s a good thing I wrote something because the local scribes didn’t. That’s ok… it’s not like Celtics fans want any insight or anything. Oh wait… you do?
Norwich Bulletin: Donny Marshall and Ray Allen play golf | Concord Monitor: Boston’s now “In” | It was tight early… but the Team USA blew out Brazil | Tayshaun Prince Hurt | CelticsBlog: Posey gives us an instant bench | Loy’s Place: Ponder the possibilities
Danny’s an Accidental Genius!!
Can you imagine if the Patriots or Red Sox had an offseason like the ones the Celtics just had? You wouldnt have trouble finding Pats or Sox news in the Globe. Why is it then that we are lucky to get anything about anything out of the Globe’s Celtics staff. I remember when the 2nd round of Garnett rumors surfaced, the Globe was one of the sites I checked for news, I saw a headline in the top corner saying “Celtics wont get Garnett,” so I figured this 2nd round of rumors was like the 1st, then I clicked the link and realized the story was from June, that was the last time they had done anything.
They are so hit or miss. Blogs…not just this one [but mostly this one :)] are always digging for C’s news. The big papers may or may not have something… but we’ll let you know if they do.
Hey John,
I’m honored to have provided a thought or two to contribute to your own.
I’m also, I guess, in somewhat of an awkward position. You see, while thinking through some of my own feelings and thoughts about Danny, I’ve ended up at a somewhat different conclusion than your own. I was working on it for a piece to put up over the next day or two.
Maybe we can both make this work. When I finish it perhaps we can compare the two conclusions. Maybe put a poll up and let reader’s vote what they think is the real deal – or not. Either way, I like your article quite a bit. It is well thought out and well represented by a constituency in Celticland. But you know that.
I think I come to the rescue of Danny a little more after sorting things through. I’d welcome your opinion – approving or not.
Anyway, I’m blathering now. Nice article.
T
This theory might make for some good reading, but it is not without holes. While even the biggest of Kool-aid drinkers have to admit that there was some good fortune along the way, good or bad breaks happen to every team who is trying to build a contender. How fortunate were the Spurs to land Duncan with such small % of chance of that actually happening? Yet the entire success of the Spurs can’t be said simply to have been the “luck” of drafting Duncan, and then Parker and Ginobli with lower picks. Would the Cavs have come anywhere near sniffing the Finals had not LeBron dropped in their laps? In fact, the case could be made that it is harder working through a series of trades and FA signings than simply hitting the lotto correctly when a superstar is there for the taking. This brings us to your examples:
1. Danny was tanking games in the hopes of turning things around.
Now I am hesitant to label Danny a genius, but only a 100% fool would have employed this strategy as you say. Funny how the media all focused on the supposed tanking as the means to Durant or Oden, but only emphasized the % chances of actually getting 1 or 2 until after we got #5. Yes, #5 was the least likely, but overwhelmingly, #4 was the most likely, so how any GM could play Keno with a season with those odds is beyond me.
2. We missed out on Oden or Durant, and thus wanted to trade the #5 for KG, but had to settle on Ray Allen and the pick that became BBD.
This completely overlooks the fact that our top tradeable assets were kept in tact in the Allen deal. Everyone knows the most desirable “chips” we had, other than the #5, were Big Al, Rondo, Gerald and Theo’s contract. Danny managed to hold on to all of those when trading for Ray. This deal was not Plan B in that it was not meant to replace Plan A which would have included 3 or 4 of those chips(which it ultimately did except for Rondo who Danny demanded be kept out of both deals. While even Danny acknowledges that he had no master plan per se to grab Allen first, then Garnett later, plain and simple, he still held onto the most tradeable assets, positioning us well for something else, certainly very planned and not just pure luck.
3. We went after Miller, when we could not land him, we went after Posey.
I don’t think this is accurate either. We were not going to use our MLE on Reggie, he was going to be a vet min. deal and we would not have expected much more than 10 min a game from him and some veteran leadership. Posey is 30, has averaged nearly 30 minutes a game for his career, brings D and toughness, quite a diff commodity than Miller. The timing seems curious, but I think it is only a matter of Posey having hung around this long, his market value having dropped, him cutting ties with Miami, etc. We would have pursued him with the MLE anyway, Reggie or no Reggie, it was just that initially he wanted more and it looked like we had no chance.
For sure, some good fortune has come DA’s way, as it has with any good GM, but we have to give credit where credit is due.
If it’s “Plan B,” like getting stuck with Bob Cousy, instead of Andy Philip in the dispersal draft, I’m all for it.
These events, taken by themselves, seem like coincidences, but taken together……
If the “force” is with Ainge, now, there’s no stopping us.
I liked the article. It was fun to read and interesting to review all the twists and turns in this off-season saga. However, I have to agree with KJ33. I give Ainge a bit more credit than just saying it was luck and not design.
Starting most recently, I believe Ainge had his eye on Posey all along because the deal was made so quickly after Miller backed out.
As far as the Ray Allen deal, one of my first instincts after the deal was an assumption that there was another shoe to drop. The trade didn’t make sense without something else. True, the draft position was bad luck, but I give Ainge credit for making something useful out of it. A lesser GM would have gone with “BPA with height” (probably Yi) under the assumption lottery picks don’t come along every day, so don’t miss the opportunity (see Toronto Raptors).
The “tanking” theory is controversial as well and, despite Ryan Gomes’ comments very late in the season, I still do not believe that tanking was an actual plan as much as it appears. We could argue that one forever. Oh, wait, we already have.
Finally, I’m not at all ashamed of great fortune. The C’s certainly have had their share of bad luck — Len Bias, Reggie Lewis, incompetent owners and GM’s — it’s about time things turned our way.
Good point Surferdad the Celtics have gone thru some horrible times and Ainge has taken alot of heat during the last couple of years. Although I often found myself defending Ainge I didn’t aways see the method to his madness. One thing I never questioned was his commitment to the Celtics this man bleeds green and not to long ago many wanted his blood to be shed. That being said Ainge has given all Celtic fans hope at least for the next several years and if that was part of his plan, pure luck or by accident I don’t care.
You guys all bring up good points… and not only would I not deny them… I’ve made them in the past.
For example…the Ray Allen deal. I like that deal. And I do think Danny did a great job keeping pieces that turned into KG. That doesn’t change the fact that he didn’t go into this offseason thinking “you know what, I’m going after Ray Allen… and that will open up doors.”
Like I said in the piece… Danny deserves credit for making Plan B work so well… but I just find it odd that EVERY move he initiated fell through… but his Plan B worked out so well. Even the best are wrong with their initial instincts (like the aforementioned Bob Cousey situation)… but this offseason has been very weird.
And like all of you… I’ll take it. I’d rather have an accidental contender than what we’ve seen recently.